← Contrarian's Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water Crux MageTier 1
at Contrarian's Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-1-2
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.1%
avg ELO +2.9 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1438
· median 1438
· range 1438–1438
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1088
Q1 1182
Q3 1405
1511
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 21.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
